Continuing from our previous article, we will focus on the issue of water security today. Please note that while this series of articles are on the theme of self-sufficiency (or rather, using our reader David?s words, ?community-sufficiency?), they are also great investment themes. As the Chinese word for ?crisis? has two components- danger and opportunity, each of these five potential emergencies is a source of both danger (societal collapse) and opportunity (lucrative investments).
With 70% of the earth?s surface covered by water, it is ironic that water can be a problem. But consider this diagram:
As you can see from this diagram, less than 1% of the earth?s freshwater are readily available for human consumption.
That reminds us very much of what?s happening to China?s water supply. We first mentioned China?s water crisis at What is the key risk faced by China (according to Jimmy Rogers)?. With a fifth of the world population, China has only 7% of the world?s fresh water. Of these 7%, we wonder how much are polluted and abused? We saw documentaries and reports of China?s rivers being so polluted that they cannot even support aquatic life, much less human life. As at 2006, half of China’s population consumes drinking water contaminated with animal and human waste that exceeds permissible levels, which is why China has the highest liver and stomach cancer death rates in the world.
Globally, the situation is not good. With global warming, dry areas are becoming drier (e.g. droughts) and wet areas wetter (e.g. floods). As Sean Brodrick wrote in The Ultimate Suburban Survivalist Guide,
In 2002, 8% of the world suffered chronic shortages. More than 80 countries, with 40% of the world?s population, are already facing water shortages? The UN forecasts that by 2050, 4 billion people will lack adequate water as entire regions turn dry.
In Australia, we have severe droughts for many years already.
Water scarcity and climate change is one issue. Water infrastructure that delivers the water to the taps in your home is another issue. Booz Allen Hamilton released a report in 2007 titled, Lights! Water! Motion!. estimated that over the next 25 years, modernizing and expanding the water, electricity, and transportation systems of the world?s cities will require approximately $40 trillion. Of that, 60% of that bill is water infrastructure.
Water pipes and systems have a useful lifespan of between 50 to 100 years. Therefore, we can suggest that say, 1/75th of water infrastructure have to be replaced every year. The best places in the world are replacing 1/200th of it every year. Water leaks from ageing pipes. Here are some rough figures for water loss through pipes:
- Hong Kong- 33%
- Sydney 35%
- Philadelphia 30-35%.
- Places throughout the state of California: 10-25%.
- London: 35%
As you can see by now, climate change, pollution, abuse and ageing water infrastructure are reducing the margins with regards to our water supply. We are not saying that there will be a water disaster soon. But water emergencies may manifest itself in the form of disruptions (e.g. burst pipes), contamination to evacuations, and in the worst case, war (the UN said that the next war in the Middle-East may be over water).
Bottom line: bad for localities, but potentially good for water companies.
. As that book argues, throughout history, environmental crisis are often the catalysts for the collapse of complex societies all over the world.