Three months ago, the global financial market saw fear, panic and volatility at extreme levels. According to some quantitative measures, such levels of fear were unprecedented (e.g. worse then the infamous 1987 crash). At that time, Marc Faber made the contrarian call that there will be a big rally within 3 months (see Marc Faber: Asset Markets May Rebound Within 3 Months).

Indeed, for the US stock market, there was a rally. But it quickly fizzled out before drifting down. Today, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 is threatening to breach the November 2008 lows. For the Australian market, it was range bound. But similar to the US market, the November 2008 line is also threatened. Commodity prices were hardly changed, while precious metals are the only ones still outperforming the rest of the market.

Back then, we asked you, our readers, on what you believed would happen to the market in 3 months time. Today, 3 months had passed. How did all your predictions go? Take a look at what you voted here. It looks like the majority was wrong- the market behaviour of the past 3 months could be best described as “range-bound.”