Posts Tagged ‘cash flow’

Two uncertainties of valuing a business- risk & earnings

Monday, September 29th, 2008

In our previous article, Measuring the value of an investment, we learnt about the theory and mathematics behind the valuation of a business under artificial conditions that are clearly defined. Under such conditions, we know exactly the business’s future earnings and its risk relative to government bonds. Therefore, valuing artificial businesses is easy and straightforward. But in the real world, earnings and risks are the very things that cannot be so easily and clearly defined and quantified. As we said in that article,

So far, this is the theory behind value investing. In practice, in a world of uncertainty and Black Swans, it is not possible to know the exact amount of future cash flow of any business. Also, risk is not something that we can easily quantify nicely in order to derive a value for the discount rate. That is the ?art? of investing.

Thus, we should not be under the impression that the dollar number that is produced from the valuation of a real-world business is a scientifically precise number. Rather, no matter how precise that number is, it is just an estimate. And it is far more important for that number to be accurate than for it to be precise. If you are confused with what this means, we suggest that you read our previous article, Confusion between precision & accuracy and Example of precisely inaccurate information.

First, we will discuss the earnings of a business. Stock analysts spend a lot of effort trying to divine the future cash flows of the business that they are analysing. However, not all businesses are the same. Some are so straightforward that it is very easy to have a very accurate estimate of their future earnings. Others are so complicated that any attempts at estimating their future earnings are at best rough guesstimates. For some, they can even be unpredictable or volatile. To be a successful investor, you will do better to avoid businesses that you find difficult to come up with accurate earnings estimates. We will explain the characteristics of businesses that favour accurate earnings estimates in future articles.

Next, we will discuss the risk of a business. The mainstream finance uses volatility of prices to define risk. As we said before in How do you define risk?,

In today?s financial services industry, a large part of risk is defined by the volatility of the price?the more volatile the investment is, the more ?risky? it is. This definition of risk arises from the fact that retail investors tend to perceive the safety of an investment in terms of how much of its value can be preserved within a given period of time.

But we see risk differently. As we explained before in Measuring the value of an investment, the risk in value investing is a relative concept. The payments of government bonds are assumed to be completely risk-free whereas the earnings of a business are not so certain. Risk relates to how secure the future earnings of a business is. To illustrate this concept, let’s suppose there are two different businesses with identical earnings estimates. One is located in a geologically stable place (e.g. Singapore) while the other is located in an earthquake prone area (e.g. Tokyo). We can say that the latter one carries more risk because its earnings can be cut due to an earthquake. Therefore, it will carry a higher discount rate.

Between earnings and risk, the latter is the most subjective of all in the business’s valuation. In a world of Black Swans, risk is not something that can be easily quantified into a precise number (discount rate). It is also a number that cannot be verified for correctness. For earnings, all we have to do is to compare earnings estimates with the actual earnings to have a gauge of the estimate’s accuracy. But you cannot do so for the discount rate. Thus, in any valuation of a business, the discount rate is the first to be fudged by analysts.

Bear that in mind when you look at analyst reports on the price targets of stocks.

Is the value of an asset its price?

Wednesday, July 2nd, 2008

Continuing from our previous article, Difference between ?assets? and real assets, we will discuss two concepts that are often confused with each other- price and value.

Everyone knows about price. So, we will not talk more about it. But the trick question is: is the value of an asset based on its price? In accounting, the value of an accounting asset (as opposed to the definition of an asset that we mentioned in Difference between ?assets? and real assets) is based on price, whether historical price of some kind of derivative of market price. In today’s speculative mindset, the quality of our investing endeavours is often judged according to the price it can fetch on the market. For example, the 2007-2008 financial year was marked by abysmal ‘performance’ of the stock market, which implies abysmal performance of our superannuation funds. Basically, this means that the price of stocks have fallen. In this kind of herd mentality, it is often easy to associate price with value.

But as investors, we have to understand that there is a difference between price and value. The former is just an easily understood nominal number. Value, on the other hand, is a relative concept. The value of something implies its worth relative to something else. So, what is the value of an asset? As we explained before in Difference between ?assets? and real assets, an asset is something that

… puts money into your pocket periodically.

Therefore, the value of an asset is a measure of the worth of its cash flow relative to the cash flow of something else. What is the “something else” that an asset’s value is compared against? Well, it is the cash flow fetched by a long-term government bond. In other words, the cash flow of the long-term government bond is used as a yardstick for which we measure the value of an asset’s cash flow.

Government bonds are theoretically zero risk in nominal terms (not in real terms though) because it cannot default on its loan (well, not if the government happens to the Russian government in 1998) as it has the power of the monetary printing press.

The cash flow of an asset, on the other hand is full of risks compared to the long-term government bond. Behind an asset is always a business enterprise, which can fail in its ability to earn cash to its owners’ satisfaction- the business may even fail completely. Therefore, to compensate its owners of that higher risk, it has to earn a return higher than the risk-free government bond. The riskier the business enterprise is, the higher the rate of return should be demanded.

In the next article, we will explain what the return on an investment is. That will involve more mathematics.