Two years ago, we mulled over the possibility of an Israeli strike on Iran. Back then, even though it was already strongly suspected that Iran had the intention to build nuclear weapons, a working bomb was still years away.
Just a few days ago, there were a couple of developments (that we learned from Stratfor.com) that will bring in a new urgency for action. Over the weekend, there were two leaks:
- The New York Times reported that an unreleased report from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) discovered that Iran is closer to building nuclear weapons than previously thought.
- The Sunday Times reported that the purpose of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Natanyahu’s secret visit to Moscow in early September was to provide the Russians with a list of Russian scientists and engineers working on Iran’s nuclear program.
These two leaks were significant developments:
- Many initially believed that Iran is still far away from a working nuclear weapon. This leak busted that wrong belief.
- It’s thanks to the Russians that development (1) happened.
Now, there’s a renewed urgency to the threat of Iran’s nuclear ambition, especially from the perspective of Israel, who is facing an existential threat from Iran.
Assuming that these leaks were true, coordinated and planned, it can be interpreted to send a message to the Russians and the Iranians. To understand why, consider why would the Israelis gave the Russians a list of their scientists and engineer currently in the Iranian nuclear program? Surely, the Russians do not need that list because they should know where their personnel are and what they were doing (given their highly competent intelligence service). By giving the Russians a list of names that they already knew, the Israelis essentially blew the cover of their intelligence operation. The only explanation of the Israelis’ action is that they already knew what they needed to know and the point of that list was intended to surprise the Russians of the extent of the Israeli intelligence. The message to the Iranians is that their deception of the extent of their nuclear program was penetrated and that they faced military actions soon.
With the Iranians getting the signal that they are facing war and the Russians put on notice that their relations with Europe and the US can potentially descend into a crisis, there are two possible outcome:
- Russians pull their scientists and engineers out of Iran and join in sanctions against Iran, which will force the Iranians to abandon their nuclear program.
- Russians will play dumb and continue goading the West, which will invite war.
Assuming that the leaks were intended by the US/Israel, then it means they are throwing the ball into the court of the Russians.
Should war break out, it is likely that oil and gold prices will surge while stock prices will tumble. Perhaps even US Treasury bond prices will rise too.
Tags: Iran, Israel, nuclear program, Russia, United States
