Today, we will resume the series on the self-sufficiency theme- food.
Global agriculture entered a new bull market since 2003. Look at this chart:
As you can see, the world has been consuming more grain that it produces for years already. There was a bumper crop in 2008-2009, but 2009-2010 is expected to return to deficit. That means, in the big picture trend, global grain inventory is running down. As Sean Brodrick wrote in The Ultimate Suburban Survivalist Guide,
The trend in global stockpiles has been lower- hitting 31-year-lows in 2008- as once-mighty surpluses were used up.
In the context of rising global population who needs at least an additional 31 million tons of grains per year. In addition, as the emerging consumers from China and India become wealthier, they are consuming more meat, which requires even more grain.
Also, if you believe in climate change (e.g. global warming), we can expect more floods, droughts, heat waves, cold snaps, crop-devouring pests around the world, which will affect agriculture yields.
Food inventory deficits are bad enough. Consider the fact that the average US meal travels about 1500 miles to get from farm to plate means that means that a looming energy emergency (see Five potential emergencies- energy crisis) will compound the problem further. Since much of the developed world is run on tight margins (see Another Achilles Heel of modern society- narrow margin), all it takes for many people to go hungry very quickly is an oil crisis. As Sean Brodrick wrote in The Ultimate Suburban Survivalist Guide,
The average supermarket only has about three to four days worth of food stocks on its shelves. In an emergency situation or real disaster, this food is going to disappear in a matter of hours as people stock up.
So, each day as you eat your meal in front of you on the table, do not take them for granted.
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