Posts Tagged ‘bias’

Another biased media report: home loans on the rise?

Tuesday, July 13th, 2010

In our report, How To Foolproof Yourself Against Salesmen & Media Bias, we wrote about how the media uses headlines to slip in their bias.

Well, here is a great example from this article in the Sydney Morning Herald (SMH)- Home loans on the rise:

The number of home loans issued to borrowers have marked their first rise in eight months are buyers looked beyond higher interest rates to wade back into the market. In a sign of caution, though, the size of a typical loan shrank.

In an another article from the SMH- Home loans up for first time in eight months:

A WEAK spot in the property market is showing tentative signs of recovery, after a surprise bounce in new lending to home buyers.

The headlines from the Daily Telegraph isn?t much better.

Despite the positive spin in these headlines, there?s a little detail that caught our eye. What is it?

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Should precise percentage of odds (of whether something will happen) be treated as nonsense?

Tuesday, June 29th, 2010

Recently, we saw an article that reported,

There is a 10 percent to 20 percent chance of BP being taken over,? said Gudmund Halle Isfeldt, an Oslo-based analyst at DnB NOR ASA, in an e-mailed note this week.

Whenever we read about analysts stating precise odds about whether certain event will happen (e.g. takeover, interest rates movement), we get very suspicious. How do they come up with such precise percentage? More importantly, are these kinds of precise numbers valid in the first place? If not, why?

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