New urgency for action against Iran

October 7th, 2009

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Two years ago, we mulled over the possibility of an Israeli strike on Iran. Back then, even though it was already strongly suspected that Iran had the intention to build nuclear weapons, a working bomb was still years away.

Just a few days ago, there were a couple of developments (that we learned from Stratfor.com) that will bring in a new urgency for action. Over the weekend, there were two leaks:

  1. The New York Times reported that an unreleased report from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) discovered that Iran is closer to building nuclear weapons than previously thought.
  2. The Sunday Times reported that the purpose of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Natanyahu’s secret visit to Moscow in early September was to provide the Russians with a list of Russian scientists and engineers working on Iran’s nuclear program.

These two leaks were significant developments:

  1. Many initially believed that Iran is still far away from a working nuclear weapon. This leak busted that wrong belief.
  2. It’s thanks to the Russians that development (1) happened.

Now, there’s a renewed urgency to the threat of Iran’s nuclear ambition, especially from the perspective of Israel, who is facing an existential threat from Iran.

Assuming that these leaks were true, coordinated and planned, it can be interpreted to send a message to the Russians and the Iranians. To understand why, consider why would the Israelis gave the Russians a list of their scientists and engineer currently in the Iranian nuclear program? Surely, the Russians do not need that list because they should know where their personnel are and what they were doing (given their highly competent intelligence service). By giving the Russians a list of names that they already knew, the Israelis essentially blew the cover of their intelligence operation. The only explanation of the Israelis’ action is that they already knew what they needed to know and the point of that list was intended to surprise the Russians of the extent of the Israeli intelligence. The message to the Iranians is that their deception of the extent of their nuclear program was penetrated and that they faced military actions soon.

With the Iranians getting the signal that they are facing war and the Russians put on notice that their relations with Europe and the US can potentially descend into a crisis, there are two possible outcome:

  1. Russians pull their scientists and engineers out of Iran and join in sanctions against Iran, which will force the Iranians to abandon their nuclear program.
  2. Russians will play dumb and continue goading the West, which will invite war.

Assuming that the leaks were intended by the US/Israel, then it means they are throwing the ball into the court of the Russians.

Should war break out, it is likely that oil and gold prices will surge while stock prices will tumble. Perhaps even US Treasury bond prices will rise too.

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  • Iran should not arouse concern. Georgia is the most dangerous flashpoint in Russia’s tense relations with the West. The Bible says: “At the appointed time [the king of the north = Russia] will return back [will regain the influence, which it lost after the break-up of the Soviet Union] and come into the south [many indicate that this might be Georgia], but it will not be as the former [1921] or as the latter [2008]. For the dwellers of coastlands of Kittim [the West] will come against him, and he will be humbled, and will return.” (Daniel 11:29,30a) Then Iran will be humbled also. “But ships will come from the direction of Kittim, troubling Asshur [Russia] and troubling Eber [inhabiting on the other side the Euphrates].” (Numbers 24:24a, BBE)

    At that time, peace will be taken from the earth and the “great sword” – nuclear sword – will be used. (Revelation 6:4) However, it will be neither the great tribulation nor “the end of the world” (Armageddon). As Jesus foretold, that will be “the beginning of birth pains”. (Mathew 24:7,8)

    If the Heavens planned a full return of Russia (and much suggests this) the present economic crisis will deepen. Then also the European Union and NATO will not stands.

    In the same way the earlier prophecy had fulfilled: “And (he) [the king of the north = Russia] will go back (to) his land with great wealth [1945]; and his heart (will be) against the holy covenant [state atheism]; and will act effectively; and turned back to his own land [the break-up of the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact, the return of Russian troops to country].” (Daniel 11:28)

  • Iran should not arouse concern. Georgia is the most dangerous flashpoint in Russia’s tense relations with the West. The Bible says: “At the appointed time [the king of the north = Russia] will return back [will regain the influence, which it lost after the break-up of the Soviet Union] and come into the south [many indicate that this might be Georgia], but it will not be as the former [1921] or as the latter [2008]. For the dwellers of coastlands of Kittim [the West] will come against him, and he will be humbled, and will return.” (Daniel 11:29,30a) Then Iran will be humbled also. “But ships will come from the direction of Kittim, troubling Asshur [Russia] and troubling Eber [inhabiting on the other side the Euphrates].” (Numbers 24:24a, BBE)

    At that time, peace will be taken from the earth and the “great sword” – nuclear sword – will be used. (Revelation 6:4) However, it will be neither the great tribulation nor “the end of the world” (Armageddon). As Jesus foretold, that will be “the beginning of birth pains”. (Mathew 24:7,8)

    If the Heavens planned a full return of Russia (and much suggests this) the present economic crisis will deepen. Then also the European Union and NATO will not stands.

    In the same way the earlier prophecy had fulfilled: “And (he) [the king of the north = Russia] will go back (to) his land with great wealth [1945]; and his heart (will be) against the holy covenant [state atheism]; and will act effectively; and turned back to his own land [the break-up of the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact, the return of Russian troops to country].” (Daniel 11:28)

  • Pete

    It is pretty interesting.

    I think it comes down to what Russia chooses to do.

    It seems that Russia is happy to use this as a bargaining chip – they have already used it to stop the progress of the european missile bases (US or NATO?). Now Russia’s choice is to either pull out from Iran or to support it.

  • Pete

    It is pretty interesting.

    I think it comes down to what Russia chooses to do.

    It seems that Russia is happy to use this as a bargaining chip – they have already used it to stop the progress of the european missile bases (US or NATO?). Now Russia’s choice is to either pull out from Iran or to support it.

  • Good times for end times!

    What terrifies me is that people like Ewiak above see nuclear conflict as fulfilling the prophesies of their religion. Who’s worried… everyone gets to go happily up to heaven!

    That people with bronze age morals and philosophy have access to atomic weapons, and are willing to kill because of beliefs about invisible friends just terrifies me.

  • Good times for end times!

    What terrifies me is that people like Ewiak above see nuclear conflict as fulfilling the prophesies of their religion. Who’s worried… everyone gets to go happily up to heaven!

    That people with bronze age morals and philosophy have access to atomic weapons, and are willing to kill because of beliefs about invisible friends just terrifies me.

  • The scary thing is that Ahmadinejad believes in the destruction of Israel as part of his religious conviction. Ahmadinejad actually believes that it is his religious prerogative to provoke a war.

    That put the Israelis in an impossible situation because their entire nation faces an existential threat. That means, a pre-emptive military strike is not out of question for the Israelis because they have no other choice. This in turn will drag the rest of the world into conflict.

  • The scary thing is that Ahmadinejad believes in the destruction of Israel as part of his religious conviction. Ahmadinejad actually believes that it is his religious prerogative to provoke a war.

    That put the Israelis in an impossible situation because their entire nation faces an existential threat. That means, a pre-emptive military strike is not out of question for the Israelis because they have no other choice. This in turn will drag the rest of the world into conflict.